In the previous post, I discussed how environmental conditions can affect the liver fluke and its snail host, and it seemed that temperature and moisture were both important factors in the development and multiplication of the parasite and snail. This is important, because the climate of the UK has changed over recent decades. The MET published a report in 2011 on their observations and projections of climate change, and this report found that over the last 50 years, the UK has become warmer, with average temperatures in the summer and winter rising by 1.4 and 1.15 degrees celsius respectively. These temperature increases are expected to continue on their upwards trend, with a projected increase of 3 degrees celsius in the south and 2.5 degrees celsius in the north by 2100. The temperature is not the only expected change by 2100, with precipitation also expected to increase by up to 10% in the north, although it is possible that there may be decreases in the south.
These changes are important, because they are changes to environmental conditions that can affect the liver fluke. There was a study that tried to predict the impacts of climate change on liver fluke. First, they looked at the impact that climate change had on Fasciola hepatica from 1970-2006, which can be seen in the image below. During the winter, the UK was fasciolosis free for this time period. During the 1970s, there were occasional losses to the disease in the west of the UK, with areas of disease prevalence in the west of Scotland. By 2000, the disease can be found in most of the UK, and had become prevalent in large areas in the west of Scotland and Wales. This shows that climate change has already affected the risk of Fasciola hepatica.
![Past changes in Fasciolosis risk](https://heatherbothwellblog.wordpress.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/04/past-risk-from-liver-fluke.png?w=358&h=289)
Past changes in Fasciolosis risk
Dark green=Little or no disease.
Light green= occasional losses
Orange= disease prevalent
Red= serious epidemic
Next, they tried to predict the impact that climate change would have on Fasciola hepatica in the future, as seen in the image below. They found that there was a risk of serious epidemics in Scotland by 2020, only 6 years away. This study also predicted that there would be serious epidemics in Wales by 2050. Over the decades, risk from Fasciola hepatica during the winter also begins to appear, with occasional losses along large sections of the west coast predicted by 2070.
![Projected change in Fasciolosis risk](https://heatherbothwellblog.wordpress.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/04/future-risk.png?w=452&h=262)
Projected change in Fasciolosis risk
Dark green=Little or no disease.
Light green= occasional losses
Orange= disease prevalent
Red= serious epidemic
This study highlights the fact that the changing climate will affect the liver fluke causing increases in the risk of disease in animals.
Both images from: Fox NJ, White PCL, McClean CJ, Marion G, Evans A and Hutchings MR. (2011) Predicting Impacts of Climate Change on Fasciola hepatica Risk. PLoS ONE 6 (1): e16126.doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0016126